Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Rees, E. M. , Minter, A., Edmunds, W. J., Lau, C. L., Kucharski, A. J. and Lowe, R. (2021) Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review. Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), e466-e478. (doi: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00137-6) (PMID:34245717)

Abstract

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal–human–environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: EMR was supported by Medical Research Council (grant number MR/N013638/1). RL was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. AJK was supported by Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant Number 206250/Z/17/Z). CLL was supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Fellowships (grant numbers APP 1109035 and 1193826).
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Rees, Dr Eleanor
• Authors: Rees, E. M., Minter, A., Edmunds, W. J., Lau, C. L., Kucharski, A. J., and Lowe, R.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: Lancet Planetary Health
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 2542-5196
• ISSN (Online): 2542-5196
• Published Online: 07 July 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Author(s)
• First Published: First published in Lancet Planetary Health 5(7);e466-e478
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license