A Markov model for beach changes on the holderness coast of England

Mason, S. J. and Hansom, J. D. (1989) A Markov model for beach changes on the holderness coast of England. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 14(8), pp. 731-743. (doi: 10.1002/esp.3290140807)

Abstract

Markov models offer an objective and quantitative method of assessing beach changes. For a stretch of the Holderness coast a beach classification scheme was devised and a probabilistic first order matrix model based on surveyed profile data was produced. This could describe and predict transitions between beach types and between different time periods. Different profile types dominated different coastal locations and seasonal variations were seen. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction throughout the year a second, ‘winter’, model was added to the original ‘summer’ one. Although the models had been prepared independently of wave conditions, a comparison of the wave record and beach transitions revealed that waves under 0·3–0·5 m high produced fairly static beaches; when waves were between 0·5 and 1·0 m the beach was more dynamic and variable, while waves over 1·0 m led to the depletion of the upper beach. This was broadly in accordance with published theory. Markov models have the advantage that they can be adjusted periodically if conditions change, and are thus useful for prediction on coasts for which no wave records exist.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Hansom, Professor James
• Authors: Mason, S. J., and Hansom, J. D.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
• Journal Name: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 0197-9337
• ISSN (Online): 1096-9837