Hazardous near Earth asteroid mitigation campaign planning based on uncertain information on fundamental asteroid characteristics

Sugimoto, Y., Radice, G., Ceriotti, M. and Sanchez, J.P. (2014) Hazardous near Earth asteroid mitigation campaign planning based on uncertain information on fundamental asteroid characteristics. Acta Astronautica, 103, pp. 333-357. (doi: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.02.022)

Abstract

Given a limited warning time, an asteroid impact mitigation campaign would hinge on uncertainty-based information consisting of remote observational data of the identified Earth-threatening object, general knowledge of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and engineering judgment. Due to these ambiguities, the campaign credibility could be profoundly compromised. It is therefore imperative to comprehensively evaluate the inherent uncertainty in deflection and plan the campaign accordingly to ensure successful mitigation. This research demonstrates dual-deflection mitigation campaigns consisting of primary (instantaneous/quasi-instantaneous) and secondary (slow-push) deflection missions, where both deflection efficiency and campaign credibility are taken into account. The results of the dual-deflection campaign analysis show that there are trade-offs between the competing aspects: the launch cost, mission duration, deflection distance, and the confidence in successful deflection. The design approach is found to be useful for multi-deflection campaign planning, allowing us to select the best possible combination of missions from a catalogue of campaign options, without compromising the campaign credibility.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Acta Astronautica. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Acta Astronautica, 103:333-357, Oct/Nov 2014, DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2014.02.022
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Radice, Dr Gianmarco and Ceriotti, Dr Matteo
• Authors: Sugimoto, Y., Radice, G., Ceriotti, M., and Sanchez, J.P.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Autonomous Systems and Connectivity; College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Systems Power and Energy
• Journal Name: Acta Astronautica
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 0094-5765
• ISSN (Online): 1879-2030
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2014 Elsevier
• First Published: First published in Acta Astronautica 103:333-357
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher