Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

Baggaley, A.W., Boys, R.J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G.R. and Shukurov, A. (2012) Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period. Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(4), pp. 1352-1376. (doi: 10.1214/12-AOAS579)

Full text not currently available from Enlighten.

Abstract

We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Baggaley, Dr Andrew
Authors: Baggaley, A.W., Boys, R.J., Golightly, A., Sarson, G.R., and Shukurov, A.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics
Journal Name:Annals of Applied Statistics
Publisher:Institute of Mathematical Statistics
ISSN:1932-6157
ISSN (Online):1941-7330
Related URLs:
Data DOI:10.1594/GFZ.CONTEXT.Ed1

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record