Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture--recapture methods

King, R., Bird, S.M., Hay, G. and Hutchinson, S. (2009) Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture--recapture methods. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 18(4), pp. 341-359. (doi: 10.1177/0962280208094701)

Abstract

<p>Using Bayesian capture—recapture methods, we estimate current injectors in Scotland in 2003, and, thereby, injectors' drug-related death rates for the period 2003—2005. Four different data sources are considered [Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) database, hospital admissions, social enquiry reports, and drug misuse database reports by General Practices or Drug Treatment Agencies] which provide covariate information on sex, region (Greater Glasgow versus elsewhere in Scotland) and age group (15—34 years and 35+ years).</p> <p>We quantified Scotland's current injectors in 2003 at 27,400 (95% highest probability density interval: 20,700—32,100) by incorporating underlying model uncertainty in terms of the possible interactions present between data sources and/or covariates. The posterior probability was 72% that Scotland had more current injectors in 2003 than in 2000. Detailed comparison with 2000 gave evidence of importantly changed numbers of current injectors for different covariate classes.</p> <p>In addition, and of particular social interest, is the estimation of injectors' drug-related death rates. Expert information was used to construct upper and lower bounds on the number of drug-related deaths pertaining to injectors, which were then used to provide bounds on injectors' drug-related death rates. Failure to incorporate expert information could result in over-estimation of drug-related death rates for subclasses of injectors.</p>

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Hay, Dr Gordon
• Authors: King, R., Bird, S.M., Hay, G., and Hutchinson, S.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
• Journal Name: Statistical Methods in Medical Research
• Publisher: SAGE
• ISSN: 0962-2802
• Published Online: 26 November 2008