Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions

White, C. J. et al. (2022) Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(6), E1448-E1472. (doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1)

Abstract

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a 'knowledge-value' gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development – demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors – this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value and co-generation of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting timescale.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: DD gratefully acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through project PP00P2_170523. For case study 1, ACP and WTKH were funded by the U.K. Climate Resilience Programme, supported by the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund. RWL was funded by NERC Grant NE/P00678/1 and by the BER DOE Office of Science Federal Award DE-SC0020324. TS was funded by NERC Independent Research Fellowship (NE/P018637/1). CMG and DB were funded by the Helmholtz Young Investigator Group “SPREADOUT” Grant VH-NG-1243. Case study 2 was supported by the U.K. Global Challenges Research Fund NE/P021077/1 (GCRF African SWIFT) and the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) of Nigeria TETFund/DR&D/CE/NRF/STI/73/VOL.1. EO thanks Adrian Tomkins of ICTP, Italy, for his contribution. Case study 3 was undertaken as part of the Columbia World Project, ACToday, Columbia University (https://iri.columbia.edu/actoday/). Case study 4 was supported by the ForPAc (Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action) project within the NERC/FCDO SHEAR Programme NE/P000428/1, NE/P000673/1, and NE/P000568/1. Case study 5 was undertaken as part of the International Research Applications Project, funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. EO thanks IRAP project colleagues at The University of Arizona, Indian Meteorological Department, Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia, and two of Bihar’s State Agricultural Universities for their contributions. For case study 6, CASC thanks Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico Process 305206/2019-2 and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo Process 2015/50687-8 (CLIMAX Project) for their support. For case study 7, DW’s contributions were carried out under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Case study 8 was funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme Grant 7767874 (S2S4E). We also acknowledge the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Project’s Real-Time Pilot Initiative for providing access to real-time forecasts. For case study 9, TIC-LCPE Hydro-04 was funded by the University of Strathclyde’s Low Carbon Power and Energy program. JB was supported by EPSRC Innovation Fellowship EP/R023484/1. We thank Andrew Low and Richard Hearnden from SSE Renewables for their input. Case study 10 was supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub under the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, and the Decadal Climate Forecasting Project (CSIRO). Case study 11 was funded by the Technologies for Sustainable Built Environments Centre, Reading University, in conjunction with the EPSRC Grant EP/G037787/1 and BT PLC. Case study 12 was funded through the framework service contract for operating the EFAS Computational Center Contract 198702 and the Copernicus Fire Danger Computations Contract 389730 295 in support of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service and Early Warning Systems between the Joint Research Centre and ECMWF.
• Keywords: subseasonal-to-seasonal, predictions, forecasting, S2S, applications, water resource management, public health, agriculture, energy, emergency management.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Browell, Dr Jethro
• Authors: White, C. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Acharya, N., Adefisan, E. A., Anderson, M. L., Aura, S., Balogun, A. A., George Bertram, D., Bluhm, S., Brayshaw, D. J., Browell, J., Büeler, D., Charlton-Perez, A., Chourio, X., Christel, I., Coelho, C. A. S., DeFlorio, M. J., Delle Monache, L., Di Giuseppe, F., María García-Solórzano, A., Gibson, P. B., Goddard, L., González Romero, C., Graham, R. J., Graham, R. M., Grams, C. M., Halford, A., Katty Huang, W. T., Jensen, K., Kilavi, M., Lawal, K. A., Lee, R. W., MacLeod, D., Manrique-Suñén, A., Martins, E. S. P. R., Maxwell, C. J., Merryfield, W. J., G. Muñoz, Á., Olaniyan, E., Otieno, G., Oyedpo, J. A., Palma, L., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Pons, D., Martin Ralph, F., Reis Jr:, D. S., Remenyi, T. A., Risbey, J. S., Robertson, D. J. C., Robertson, A. W., Smith, S., Soret, A., Sun, T., Todd, M. C., Tozer, C. R., Vasconcelos Jr:, F. C., Vigo, I., Waliser, D. E., Wetterhall, F., and Wilson, R. G.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics
• Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• ISSN: 0003-0007
• ISSN (Online): 1520-0477
• Published Online: 13 June 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 American Meteorological Society
• First Published: First published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2022
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy