Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social–ecological systems

Cremin, E. et al. (2024) Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social–ecological systems. AMBIO, (doi: 10.1007/s13280-023-01978-2) (PMID:38613747) (Early Online Publication)

Abstract

The sustainability of social–ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger “negative” or “positive” tipping points depending on actors’ perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world’s river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social–ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: We acknowledge the funding received from the UKRI GCRF Living Deltas Hub under Grant Reference NE/S008926/1. This research is also funded by Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM) under Grant Number TX2024-16-01 (time contribution of staff at Climate Change Institute, An Giang University).
• Status: Early Online Publication
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Renaud, Professor Fabrice and Cremin, Dr Emilie and Ladd, Dr Cai and Balke, Dr Thorsten
• Authors: Cremin, E., Ladd, C. J.T., Balke, T., Banerjee, S., Lybhcres, L. H. B., Ghosh, T., Large, A., Huệ, L. T. V., Nguyen, V. K., Nguyen, L. X., Nguyen, T. T.N., Nguyen, V., Pal, I., Szabo, S., Tran, H., Sebresvari, Z., Renaud, F. G., and Khan, S. A.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences; College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
• Journal Name: AMBIO
• Publisher: Springer
• ISSN: 0044-7447
• ISSN (Online): 1654-7209
• Published Online: 13 April 2024
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © Crown 2024
• First Published: First published in AMBIO 2024
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence