Political communication in the real world: Evidence from a natural experiment in Germany

Seimel, A. (2024) Political communication in the real world: Evidence from a natural experiment in Germany. Political Science Research and Methods, (doi: 10.1017/psrm.2024.3) (Early Online Publication)

Abstract

Various robust communication effects have been identified, but evidence is overwhelmingly based on artificial survey treatments with limited real-world insight. I conducted a natural experiment on the impact of the European–Turkey statement closing the Balkan route during the 2015/16 European refugee crisis in Germany. This design tests the lasting effect of the statement's framing on public sentiment. I identify treatment and control groups based on timing to demonstrate its effect on perceptions of the crisis, asylum attitudes, and policy preferences. Effects are largest immediately following the announcement but decline rapidly. This shows political communication can significantly change opinion within a limited time frame. This study enhances our understanding of real-world communication effects and offers a broadly applicable methodology.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Early Online Publication
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Seimel, Mr Armin
• Authors: Seimel, A.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: Political Science Research and Methods
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• ISSN: 2049-8470
• ISSN (Online): 2049-8489
• Published Online: 18 March 2024
• Copyright Holders: Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024
• First Published: First published in Political Science Research and Methods 2024
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence