Party system institutionalization and the durability of competitive authoritarian regimes

Kim, W., Bernhard, M. and Hicken, A. (2024) Party system institutionalization and the durability of competitive authoritarian regimes. European Journal of Political Research, (doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12655) (Early Online Publication)

Abstract

Party system institutionalization (PSI) is regarded as a critical underpinning of democracies, but its role in non-democratic systems has been understudied. In this paper, we evaluate whether the concept has meaningful and perhaps unique implications for the durability of competitive authoritarian regimes. We argue that a modified version of electoral volatility – the most common measure of PSI in democracies – conveys useful information about PSI in competitive authoritarian contexts by signalling the ability of the ruling party to manage the opposition. To this end, we construct an original data set that disaggregates electoral volatility into ruling party seat change and opposition party seat volatility and further divides opposition party volatility into Type-A and Type-B volatility. We find robust results that democratization becomes more likely when decreases in the ruling party's seat share coincide with an increase in opposition party Type-B volatility. This paper demonstrates that the concept of PSI has utility for understanding regime dynamics in competitive authoritarian contexts.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Early Online Publication
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Kim, Mr Wooseok
• Authors: Kim, W., Bernhard, M., and Hicken, A.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: European Journal of Political Research
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 0304-4130
• ISSN (Online): 1475-6765
• Published Online: 19 January 2024
• Copyright Holders: Copyright: © 2024 The Authors
• First Published: First published in European Journal of Political Research 2024
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence