Burton, J. K. , McMinn, M. , Vaughan, J. E., Nightingale, G., Fleuriot, J. and Guthrie, B. (2024) Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on Scotland’s care homes from March 2020 to October 2021: National linked data cohort analysis. Age and Ageing, 53(2), afae015. (doi: 10.1093/ageing/afae015) (PMID:38342752) (PMCID:PMC10859243)
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Abstract
Background: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care residents remains of wide interest, but most analyses focus on the initial wave of infections. Objective: To examine change over time in: (i) The size, duration, classification and pattern of care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 and associated mortality and (ii) characteristics associated with an outbreak. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study using routinely-collected data. Setting: All adult care-homes in Scotland (1,092 homes, 41,299 places). Methods: Analysis was undertaken at care-home level, over three periods. Period (P)1 01/03/2020-31/08/2020; P2 01/09/2020-31/05/2021 and P3 01/06/2021–31/10/2021. Outcomes were the presence and characteristics of outbreaks and mortality within the care-home. Cluster analysis was used to compare the pattern of outbreaks. Logistic regression examined care-home characteristics associated with outbreaks. Results: In total 296 (27.1%) care-homes had one outbreak, 220 (20.1%) had two, 91 (8.3%) had three, and 68 (6.2%) had four or more. There were 1,313 outbreaks involving residents: 431 outbreaks in P1, 559 in P2 and 323 in P3. The COVID-19 mortality rate per 1,000 beds fell from 45.8 in P1, to 29.3 in P2, and 3.5 in P3. Larger care-homes were much more likely to have an outbreak, but associations between size and outbreaks were weaker in later periods. Conclusions: COVID-19 mitigation measures appear to have been beneficial, although the impact on residents remained severe until early 2021. Care-home residents, staff, relatives and providers are critical groups for consideration and involvement in future pandemic planning.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | The project was commissioned from Public Health Scotland by the Social Care and Mental Health Directorate in Scottish Government. Analysis was conducted independent from the Scottish Government. JKB is supported by an NHS Education for Scotland/Chief Scientist Office Postdoctoral Clinical Lectureship (PCL/21/01). The Advanced Care Research Centre is funded by Legal and General PLC as part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) programme. |
| Keywords: | Long-term care, COVID-19, epidemiology, care-homes, data linkage. |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | McMinn, Dr Megan and Burton, Dr Jenni |
| Authors: | Burton, J. K., McMinn, M., Vaughan, J. E., Nightingale, G., Fleuriot, J., and Guthrie, B. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health |
| Journal Name: | Age and Ageing |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
| ISSN: | 0002-0729 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1468-2834 |
| Published Online: | 10 February 2024 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2024 |
| First Published: | First published in Age and Ageing 53(2): afae015 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence |
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