Epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses among people with mild and severe acute respiratory illness in Blantyre, Malawi, 2011–2017

Kovacs, D. et al. (2024) Epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses among people with mild and severe acute respiratory illness in Blantyre, Malawi, 2011–2017. Journal of Infectious Diseases, (doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiad587) (Early Online Publication)

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to characterize the epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) in southern Malawi. Methods: We tested for HCoVs 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on upper respiratory specimens from asymptomatic controls and individuals of all ages recruited through severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, and a prospective influenza-like illness (ILI) observational study between 2011 and 2017. We modeled the probability of having a positive PCR for each HCoV using negative binomial models, and calculated pathogen-attributable fractions (PAFs). Results: Overall, 8.8% (539/6107) of specimens were positive for ≥1 HCoV. OC43 was the most frequently detected HCoV (3.1% [191/6107]). NL63 was more frequently detected in ILI patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 9.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.25–28.30]), while 229E (aIRR, 8.99 [95% CI, 1.81–44.70]) was more frequent in SARI patients than asymptomatic controls. In adults, 229E and OC43 were associated with SARI (PAF, 86.5% and 89.4%, respectively), while NL63 was associated with ILI (PAF, 85.1%). The prevalence of HCoVs was similar between children with SARI and controls. All HCoVs had bimodal peaks but distinct seasonality. Conclusions: OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV in acute respiratory illness of all ages. Individual HCoVs had distinct seasonality that differed from temperate settings.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant numbers 091947, 097464, and 099962), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (cooperative agreement 5U01CK000146-04) and the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00034/6).
• Keywords: Human, seasonal coronavirus, severe acute respiratory illness, seasonality, pathogen-attributable fraction, Malawi.
• Status: Early Online Publication
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Kovacs, Miss Dorottya and Ho, Dr Antonia

Creator Roles

Kovacs, D.: Formal analysis, Data curation, Writing – original draft
Ho, A.: Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing – original draft, Supervision, Funding acquisition

• Authors: Kovacs, D., Mambule, I., Read, J. M., Kiran, A., Chilombe, M., Bvumbwe, T., Aston, S., Menyere, M., Masina, M., Kamzati, M., Ganiza, T. N., Luliano, D., McMorrow, M., Bar-Zeev, N., Everett, D., French, N., and Ho, A.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity > Centre for Virus Research
• Journal Name: Journal of Infectious Diseases
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0022-1899
• ISSN (Online): 1537-6613
• Published Online: 14 February 2024
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2024 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Journal of Infectious Diseases 2024
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License