Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir

Ribeiro, R. , Matthiopoulos, J. , Lindgren, F., Tello, C., Zariquiey, C. M., Valderrama, W., Rocke, T. E. and Streicker, D. G. (2023) Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290(2011), 20231739. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1739) (PMID:37989240) (PMCID:PMC10688441)

Abstract

Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: Funding. The project was funded by the NSF/BBSRC Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program (DEB 2011069, BB/V003798/1). D.G.S. was funded by a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellowship (217221/Z/19/Z).
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Streicker, Professor Daniel and Cardoso Ribeiro, Dr Rita Claudia and Matthiopoulos, Professor Jason

Creator Roles

Ribeiro, R.: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing
Matthiopoulos, J.: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing
Streicker, D.: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing

• Authors: Ribeiro, R., Matthiopoulos, J., Lindgren, F., Tello, C., Zariquiey, C. M., Valderrama, W., Rocke, T. E., and Streicker, D. G.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Publisher: The Royal Society
• ISSN: 0962-8452
• ISSN (Online): 1471-2954
• Published Online: 22 November 2023
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2023 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 290(2011):20231739
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license
• Data DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10026623

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
309812		US-UK collaboration: Integrating animal ecology, epidemiology, and human interests for strategic zoonosis management in a complex wildlife reservoir	Daniel Streicker	Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)	BB/V003798/1	Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
307106		Epidemiology meets biotechnology: preventing viral emergence from bats	Daniel Streicker	Wellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)	217221/Z/19/Z	Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine