Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America

Mutz, S. G. and Aschauer, J. (2022) Empirical glacier mass-balance models for South America. Journal of Glaciology, 68(271), pp. 912-926. (doi: 10.1017/jog.2022.6)

Abstract

We investigate relationships between synoptic-scale atmospheric variability and the mass-balance of 13 Andean glaciers (located 16–55° S) using Pearson correlation coefficients (PCCs) and multiple regressions. We then train empirical glacier mass-balance models (EGMs) in a cross-validated multiple regression procedure for each glacier. We find four distinct glaciological zones with regard to their climatic controls: (1) The mass-balance of the Outer Tropics glaciers is linked to temperature and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PCC ⩽ 0.6), (2) glaciers of the Desert Andes are mainly controlled by zonal wind intensity (PCC ⩽ 0.9) and the Antarctic Oscillation (PCC ⩽0.6), (3) the mass-balance of the Central Andes glaciers is primarily correlated with precipitation anomalies (PCC ⩽ 0.8), and (4) the glacier of the Fuegian Andes is controlled by winter precipitation (PCC ≈ 0.7) and summer temperature (PCC ≈ −0.9). Mass-balance data in the Lakes District and Patagonian Andes zones, where most glaciers are located, are too sparse for a robust detection of synoptic-scale climatic controls. The EGMs yield R2 values of ~ 0.45 on average and ⩽ 0.74 for the glaciers of the Desert Andes. The EGMs presented here do not consider glacier dynamics or geometry and are therefore only suitable for short-term predictions.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Mutz, Dr Rer Nat Sebastian
• Authors: Mutz, S. G., and Aschauer, J.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
• Journal Name: Journal of Glaciology
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
• ISSN: 0022-1430
• ISSN (Online): 1727-5652
• Published Online: 18 February 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © The Author(s), 2022
• First Published: First published in Journal of Glaciology 68(271):912-926
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license