Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Rees, E. M. , Waterlow, N. R., Lowe, R. and Kucharski, A. J. (2021) Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies. Wellcome Open Research, 6, 138. (doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.3) (PMID:34708157) (PMCID:PMC8517721)

Abstract

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: Version 3; peer review: 3 approved. AK was supported by Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant Number 206250/Z/17/Z). EMR receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/N013638/1). NRW receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/N013638/1). RL was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Rees, Dr Eleanor
• Authors: Rees, E. M., Waterlow, N. R., Lowe, R., and Kucharski, A. J.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: Wellcome Open Research
• Publisher: F1000Research
• ISSN: 2398-502X
• ISSN (Online): 2398-502X
• Published Online: 03 June 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 Rees EM et al.
• First Published: First published in Wellcome Open Research 6:138
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license