Lotto Batista, M., Rees, E. M. , Gómez, A., López, S., Castell, S., Kucharski, A. J., Ghozzi, S., Müller, G. V. and Lowe, R. (2023) Towards a leptospirosis early warning system in northeastern Argentina. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 20(202), 20230069. (doi: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0069)
Full text not currently available from Enlighten.
Abstract
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease with a high burden in Latin America, including northeastern Argentina, where flooding events linked to El Niño are associated with leptospirosis outbreaks. The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of using hydrometeorological indicators to predict leptospirosis outbreaks in this region. We quantified the effects of El Niño, precipitation, and river height on leptospirosis risk in Santa Fe and Entre Ríos provinces between 2009 and 2020, using a Bayesian modelling framework. Based on several goodness of fit statistics, we selected candidate models using a long-lead El Niño 3.4 index and shorter lead local climate variables. We then tested predictive performance to detect leptospirosis outbreaks using a two-stage early warning approach. Three-month lagged Niño 3.4 index and one-month lagged precipitation and river height were positively associated with an increase in leptospirosis cases in both provinces. El Niño models correctly detected 89% of outbreaks, while short-lead local models gave similar detection rates with a lower number of false positives. Our results show that climatic events are strong drivers of leptospirosis incidence in northeastern Argentina. Therefore, a leptospirosis outbreak prediction tool driven by hydrometeorological indicators could form part of an early warning and response system in the region.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Funding: M.L.B. was supported by the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association (grant no. RA-285/19). E.M.R. was supported by the Medical Research Council (grant no. MR/N013638/1). A.G., S.L. and G.V.M. were supported by ASaCTeI: Science, Technology and Innovation Agency, Government of Santa Fe (grant no. 2010-056-14). A.J.K. was supported by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 206250/Z/17/Z). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. M.L.B. and R.L. were supported by the European Union's Horizon Europe programme (Grant Agreement 101057554 IDAlert). |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Rees, Dr Eleanor |
| Creator Roles: | Rees, E. M.Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing |
| Authors: | Lotto Batista, M., Rees, E. M., Gómez, A., López, S., Castell, S., Kucharski, A. J., Ghozzi, S., Müller, G. V., and Lowe, R. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
| Journal Name: | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
| Publisher: | The Royal Society |
| ISSN: | 1742-5689 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1742-5662 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2023 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Journal of The Royal Society Interface 20(202):20230069 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons license |
University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record
Deposit and Record Details
Deposit and Record Details