Seaman, R. , Walsh, D. , Beatty, C., McCartney, G. and Dundas, R. (2023) Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland, and Wales. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, (doi: 10.1136/jech-2023-220328) (PMID:37935573) (Early Online Publication)
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Abstract
Background: The UK Government’s ‘welfare reform’ programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012–2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales. Methods: Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects. Results: Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy. Conclusions: Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Funding: RD is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and the Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). |
| Status: | Early Online Publication |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Walsh, Dr David and Seaman, Ms Rosemary and Dundas, Professor Ruth |
| Authors: | Seaman, R., Walsh, D., Beatty, C., McCartney, G., and Dundas, R. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health |
| Journal Name: | Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health |
| Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
| ISSN: | 0143-005X |
| ISSN (Online): | 1470-2738 |
| Published Online: | 07 November 2023 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023 |
| First Published: | First published in Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2023 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons license |
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