Scenario analysis for Hong Kong port development under changing business environment

Zhang, A. and Huang, G.Q. (2011) Scenario analysis for Hong Kong port development under changing business environment. In: Chew, E. P., Lee, L. H. and Tang, L. C. (eds.) Advances in Maritime Logistics and Supply Chain Systems. World Scientific, pp. 69-90. ISBN 9789814329859 (doi: 10.1142/9789814329866_0003)

Abstract

Hong Kong port (HKP) had been the world's busiest container port during the 1990s and early 2000s. However, in recent years, its growth slowed down due to rising competition from mainland ports. This paper identifies that potential relocation of its key cargo source, processing trade enterprises, may also have fundamental impacts on HKP development. Scenario analysis is conducted to understand the relationships between business environment factors and potential relocation trends using a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. It suggests production operations are likely to move to Pan-PRD and lower cost areas of Guangdong if business environment does not deteriorate much further. However, continual appreciation of Chinese currency RMB and further reduction of value-added tax (VAT) rebate in China will make Asian lower cost countries more competitive. Very low oil prices will favor Inland of China. Very high oil prices will cause global manufacturing move near major markets. Processing trade relocation to western Guangdong will be slightly favorable to HKP development, while other relocation scenarios will adversely affect HKP development.

• Item Type: Book Sections
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Zhang, Dr Abraham
• Authors: Zhang, A., and Huang, G.Q.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Management
• Journal Name: Advances in Maritime Logistics and Supply Chain Systems
• Publisher: World Scientific
• ISBN: 9789814329859

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