What do you want theory for? A pragmatic analysis of the roles of “theory” in agent-based modelling

Antosz, P., Birks, D., Edmonds, B., Heppenstall, A. , Meyer, R., Polhill, J. G., O’Sullivan, D. and Wijermans, N. (2023) What do you want theory for? A pragmatic analysis of the roles of “theory” in agent-based modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, 168, 105802. (doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105802)

Abstract

There has been some discussion about agent-based modelling (ABM) and theory, particularly how ABM might facilitate theory building. However, there is confusion about the different ways they could relate and some scepticism as to whether theory is needed if one has an ABM. This paper distinguishes some of the different ways that the term “theory” is used in ABM papers in three important ABM journals: Environmental Modelling & Software, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems and the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. Apart from the simple-minded identification of theory with mathematics, we distinguish nine different ways that theory and ABM relate. This analysis is situated with respect to some of the expectations and philosophical background behind the idea of “theory”. The paper concludes with some ways in which theory and ABM could work better together, some possible ways forward and suggests that a more cautious approach to generalisation might be more appropriate.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: Edmonds was supported as part of the ESRC-funded, UK part of the “ToRealSim” project, grant number ES/S015159/1. Heppenstall was also supported by grants from UKPRP (MR/S037578/2), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/5) and Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU20). Polhill was funded by the Scottish Government’s Environment Natural Resources and Agriculture Strategic Research Programme 2022-2027 (JHI-C5-1).
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Heppenstall, Professor Alison
• Authors: Antosz, P., Birks, D., Edmonds, B., Heppenstall, A., Meyer, R., Polhill, J. G., O’Sullivan, D., and Wijermans, N.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Urban Studies
• Journal Name: Environmental Modelling and Software
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 1364-8152
• ISSN (Online): 1873-6726
• Published Online: 21 August 2023
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2023 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Environmental Modelling and Software 168:105802
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
313944		System-science Informed Public Health and Economic Research for non-communicable Disease Prevention (the SIPHER consortium)	Petra Meier	Medical Research Council (MRC)	MR/S037578/2	SHW - MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit
304823	1	Systems science research in public health	Petra Meier	Medical Research Council (MRC)	MC_UU_00022/5	HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
304823	1	Systems science research in public health	Petra Meier	Office of the Chief Scientific Adviser (CSO)	SPHSU20	HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit