Interactive Uncertainty Allocation and Trade-off at Early-stage Aircraft Computational Design

Molina-Cristóbal, A., Chen, X., Guenov, M. D., Riaz, A. and van Heerden, A. S. J. (2018) Interactive Uncertainty Allocation and Trade-off at Early-stage Aircraft Computational Design. In: 2018 AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, Kissimmee, Florida, USA, 8-12 Jan 2018, ISBN 9781624105296 (doi: 10.2514/6.2018-2170)

Abstract

A common probabilistic approach to uncertainty allocation is to assign acceptable variability in the sources of uncertainty, such that pre-specified probabilities of meeting performance constraints are satisfied. However, the computational cost of obtaining the associated trade-offs increases significantly when more sources of uncertainty and more outputs are considered. Consequently, visualizing and exploring the trade-off space becomes increasingly difficult, which, in turn, makes the decision-making process cumbersome for practicing designers. To tackle this problem, proposed is a parameterization of the input probability distribution functions, to account for several statistical moments. This, combined with efficient uncertainty propagation and inverse computation techniques, results in a computational system which performs order(s) of magnitude faster, compared with a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization techniques. Also, to aid decision-making regarding the potential combinations of uncertainty allocation, enablers for visualizing the trade space are proposed. The combined approach is demonstrated by means of a representative aircraft thermal system integration example.

• Item Type: Conference Proceedings
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: van Heerden, Dr Stevan
• Authors: Molina-Cristóbal, A., Chen, X., Guenov, M. D., Riaz, A., and van Heerden, A. S. J.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Autonomous Systems and Connectivity
• Journal Name: AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, 2018
• ISBN: 9781624105296
• Published Online: 07 January 2018