Pascall, D. J. et al. (2023) Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent. Journal of Infection, 87(2), pp. 128-135. (doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2023.05.019) (PMID:37270070) (PMCID:PMC10234362)
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Abstract
Objectives: To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment. Results: After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08–2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42–3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76–1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22–1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68–1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron. Conclusions: The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | This work was supported by UKRI through the JUNIPER consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1, https://maths.org/juniper/); the Medical Research Council (MRC) (grant numbers MC UU 12014/12, MC UU 00002/11, https://www.ukri.org/councils/mrc/); the G2P-UK National Virology Consortium (grant number MR/W005611/1, https://www.ukri.org) |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Robertson, Professor David and Thomson, Professor Emma and Haughney, Dr John and Davis, Dr Chris and Vink, Elen and MacLean, Dr Oscar and Blacow, Dr Rachel and Da Silva Filipe, Dr Ana and Gunson, Dr Rory and Shepherd, Dr James and Pascall, Dr David and Ray, Professor Surajit and Bulteel, Dr Naomi and Smollett, Dr Katherine and Hughes, Dr Joseph and Wilkie, Dr Craig and Mollett, Mr Guy |
| Authors: | Pascall, D. J., Vink, E., Blacow, R., Bulteel, N., Campbell, A., Campbell, R., Clifford, S., Davis, C., da Silva Filipe, A., El Sakka, N., Fjodorova, L., Forrest, R., Goldstein, E., Gunson, R., Haughney, J., Holden, M. T.G., Honour, P., Hughes, J., James, E., Lewis, T., MacLean, O., McHugh, M., Mollett, G., Nyberg, T., Onishi, Y., Parcell, B., Ray, S., Robertson, D. L., Seaman, S. R., Shabaan, S., Shepherd, J. G., Smollett, K., Templeton, K., Wastnedge, E., Wilkie, C., Williams, T., The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, , and Thomson, E. C. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics |
| Journal Name: | Journal of Infection |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0163-4453 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1532-2742 |
| Published Online: | 01 June 2023 |
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