Risk tolerance as a complementary concept to risk perception of natural hazards: a conceptual review and application

Anderson, C. C. , Moure, M., Demski, C. and Renaud, F. G. (2023) Risk tolerance as a complementary concept to risk perception of natural hazards: a conceptual review and application. Risk Analysis, (doi: 10.1111/risa.14161) (Early Online Publication)

Abstract

There is a longstanding assumption that if people perceive a risk as high, they will act to reduce it. In fact, research has shown a lack of consistently strong causal relations between risk perception (RP) and mitigative behavior—the so-called “risk perception paradox.” Despite a recent increase in research on RP, individuals’ risk tolerance (RT; or demand for risk reduction) only rarely appears as a consideration for explaining behavioral response to natural hazards. To address this research gap, we first systematically review relevant literature and find that RT has been directly assessed or operationalized using perceived thresholds related to costs and benefits of risk reduction measures, risk consequences, hazard characteristics, behavioral responses, or affective reactions. It is either considered a component or a result of RP. We then use survey data of individuals’ RP, RT, and behavioral intention to assess relations among these variables. Comparing across three European study sites, “behavioral intention” is assessed as the public's willingness to actively support the implementation of nature-based solutions to reduce disaster risk. A series of tests using regression models shows RT significantly explains variance in behavioral intention and significantly contributes additional explanatory power beyond RP in all three sites. In two sites, RT is also a significant partial mediator of the relation between RP and behavior. Taken together, our findings demand further conceptual and empirical research on individuals’ RT and its systematic consideration as a determinant for (in)action in response to natural hazards.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: The contribution of Carl C. Anderson was supported by a University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences PhD Scholarship. This work was supported by the European Union's (EU) Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. The survey was funded by and carried out within the framework of the OPERANDUM (OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solUtions to Manage hydro-meteo risks) project (Grant Number 776848).
• Status: Early Online Publication
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Renaud, Professor Fabrice and Anderson, Carl Cyrus
• Authors: Anderson, C. C., Moure, M., Demski, C., and Renaud, F. G.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
• Journal Name: Risk Analysis
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 0272-4332
• ISSN (Online): 1539-6924
• Published Online: 31 May 2023
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2023 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Risk Analysis 2023
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License