Schroeder, M. , Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R. and Angelopoulos, K. (2023) An extended period of elevated influenza mortality risk follows the main waves of influenza pandemics. Social Science and Medicine, 328, 115975. (doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.115975) (PMID:37301110) (PMCID:PMC7614920)
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Abstract
Understanding the extent and evolution of pandemic-induced mortality risk is critical given its wide-ranging impacts on population health and socioeconomic outcomes. We examine empirically the persistence and scale of influenza mortality risk following the main waves of influenza pandemics, an analysis which is missing from existing research despite its importance for understanding the true scale of pandemic-induced risk. We provide evidence from municipal public health records that multiple recurrent outbreaks followed the main waves of the 1918-19 pandemic in eight large cities in the UK, a pattern we confirm using data for the same period in the US and data for multiple influenza pandemics during the period 1838–2000 in England and Wales. To estimate the persistence and scale of latent post-pandemic influenza mortality risk, we model the stochastic process of mortality rates as a sequence of bounded Pareto distributions whose tail indexes evolves over time. Consistently across pandemics and locations, we find that influenza mortality risk remains elevated for around two decades after the main pandemic waves before more rapid convergence to background influenza mortality, amplifying the impact of pandemics. Despite the commonality in duration, there is heterogeneity in the persistence and scale of risk across the cities, suggesting effects of both immunity and socioeconomic conditions.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Schroeder, Mr Max and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Lazarakis, Spyridon and Angelopoulos, Professor Konstantinos |
| Authors: | Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., and Angelopoulos, K. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Management |
| Journal Name: | Social Science and Medicine |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0277-9536 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1873-5347 |
| Published Online: | 19 May 2023 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2023 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Social Science and Medicine 328:115975 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence |
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