A comparative study of single and multi-stage forecasting algorithms for the prediction of electricity consumption using a UK-NHS hospital dataset

Taha, A. , Barakat, B., Taha, M. M.A., Shawky, M. A. , Lai, C. S., Hussain, S. , Abideen, M. Z. and Abbasi, Q. H. (2023) A comparative study of single and multi-stage forecasting algorithms for the prediction of electricity consumption using a UK-NHS hospital dataset. Future Internet, 15(4), 134. (doi: 10.3390/fi15040134)

Abstract

Accurately looking into the future was a significantly major challenge prior to the era of big data, but with rapid advancements in the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the data availability around us, this has become relatively easier. Nevertheless, in order to ensure high-accuracy forecasting, it is crucial to consider suitable algorithms and the impact of the extracted features. This paper presents a framework to evaluate a total of nine forecasting algorithms categorised into single and multistage models, constructed from the Prophet, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) approaches, applied to an electricity demand dataset from an NHS hospital. The aim is to see such techniques widely used in accurately predicting energy consumption, limiting the negative impacts of future waste on energy, and making a contribution towards the 2050 net zero carbon target. The proposed method accounts for patterns in demand and temperature to accurately forecast consumption. The Coefficient of Determination (R2 ), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the algorithms’ performance. The results show the superiority of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the multistage Facebook Prophet model, with R2 values of 87.20% and 68.06% , respectively.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Taha, Dr Ahmad and Shawky, Mr Mahmoud and Hussain, Dr Sajjad and Abbasi, Dr Qammer

Creator Roles

Taha, A.: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing
Abbasi, Q.: Conceptualization, Writing – review and editing
Shawky, M.: Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing
Hussain, S.: Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing

• Authors: Taha, A., Barakat, B., Taha, M. M.A., Shawky, M. A., Lai, C. S., Hussain, S., Abideen, M. Z., and Abbasi, Q. H.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Autonomous Systems and Connectivity; College of Science and Engineering > School of Engineering > Electronics and Nanoscale Engineering
• Journal Name: Future Internet
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 1999-5903
• ISSN (Online): 1999-5903
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2023 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Future Internet 15(4):134
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
312561		EPSRC DTP 2020/21	Christopher Pearce	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)	EP/T517896/1	Research and Innovation Services