Testing the predictability of morphological evolution in contrasting thermal environments

Pilakouta, N. et al. (2023) Testing the predictability of morphological evolution in contrasting thermal environments. Evolution, 77(1), pp. 239-253. (doi: 10.1093/evolut/qpac018) (PMID:36622731)

Abstract

Gaining the ability to predict population responses to climate change is a pressing concern. Using a “natural experiment,” we show that testing for divergent evolution in wild populations from contrasting thermal environments provides a powerful approach, and likely an enhanced predictive power for responses to climate change. Specifically, we used a unique study system in Iceland, where freshwater populations of threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) are found in waters warmed by geothermal activity, adjacent to populations in ambient-temperature water. We focused on morphological traits across six pairs from warm and cold habitats. We found that fish from warm habitats tended to have a deeper mid-body, a subterminally orientated jaw, steeper craniofacial profile, and deeper caudal region relative to fish from cold habitats. Our common garden experiment showed that most of these differences were heritable. Population age did not appear to influence the magnitude or type of thermal divergence, but similar types of divergence between thermal habitats were more prevalent across allopatric than sympatric population pairs. These findings suggest that morphological divergence in response to thermal habitat, despite being relatively complex and multivariate, are predictable to a degree. Our data also suggest that the potential for migration of individuals between different thermal habitats may enhance nonparallel evolution and reduce our ability to predict responses to climate change.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Pilakouta, Dr Natalie and Lindstrom, Dr Jan and Killen, Professor Shaun and Hill, Mr Iain and Humble, Joseph and Metcalfe, Professor Neil and Smith, Miss Bethany and Kristjansson, Professor Bjarni and Arthur, Miss Jessica and Parsons, Dr Kevin
• Authors: Pilakouta, N., Humble, J. L., Hill, I. D.C., Arthur, J., Costa, A. P.B., Smith, B. A., Kristjánsson, B. K., Skúlason, S., Killen, S. S., Lindström, J., Metcalfe, N. B., and Parsons, K. J.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
• Journal Name: Evolution
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0014-3820
• ISSN (Online): 1558-5646
• Published Online: 09 December 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Evolution 77(1): 239-253
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License
• Data DOI: 10.5061/dryad.bnzs7h4fb

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
172724		The predictability and limits of evolution to increased temperature: insights from a natural 'experiment'	Kevin Parsons	Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)	NE/N016734/1	Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine
167015		The Influence of Individual Physiology on Group Behaviour in Fish Schools	Shaun Killen	Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)	NE/J019100/1	Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine