The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration

Hinsch, M. and Bijak, J. (2023) The effects of information on the formation of migration routes and the dynamics of migration. Artificial Life, 29(1), pp. 3-20. (doi: 10.1162/artl_a_00388) (PMID:36383052)

Abstract

Most models of migration simply assume that migrants somehow make their way from their point of origin to their chosen destination. We know, however, that—especially in the case of asylum migration—the migrant journey often is a hazardous, difficult process where migrants make decisions based on limited information and under severe material constraints. Here we investigate the dynamics of the migration journey itself using a spatially explicit, agent-based model. In particular we are interested in the effects of limited information and information exchange. We find that under limited information, migration routes generally become suboptimal, their stochasticity increases, and migrants arrive much less frequently at their preferred destination. Under specific circumstances, self-organised consensus routes emerge that are largely unpredictable. Limited information also strongly reduces the migrants’ ability to react to changes in circumstances. We conclude, first, that information and information exchange is likely to have considerable effects on all aspects of migration and should thus be included in future modelling efforts and, second, that there are many questions in theoretical migration research that are likely to profit from the use of agent-based modelling techniques.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme; European Research Council grant No. 725232 BAPS: Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies (MH and JB)
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Hinsch, Dr Martin
• Authors: Hinsch, M., and Bijak, J.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
• Journal Name: Artificial Life
• Publisher: MIT Press
• ISSN: 1064-5462
• ISSN (Online): 1530-9185
• Published Online: 29 September 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• First Published: First published in Artificial Life 29(1): 3-20
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy