Elsenbroich, C. and Polhill, J. G. (2023) Agent-based modelling as a method for prediction for complex social systems. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 26(2), pp. 133-142. (doi: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2152007)
Full text not currently available from Enlighten.
Abstract
Agent-based models (ABMs) have their origins in considerations of complexity science stipulating that many phenomena can be ‘grown from the bottom up’. Explicitly, this was expressed in Epstein & Axtell’s (1996) Growing Artificial Societies as the change from ‘Can you explain it?’ to ‘Can you grow it?’. In 2008, Epstein published an article entitled Why Model? in which he discussed his exasperation with people asking for predictions from ABM, pointing out that many other purposes to which it might be applied are more worthy of consideration than prediction, including explanation, improving data collection, testing theories and suggesting analogies. Fourteen years later, the debate about the predictive powers of ABM is still unresolved. This special issue presents the range of positions on ABM and prediction, tackling methodological, epistemological and pragmatic issues.
| Item Type: | Articles (Editorial) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | JGP gratefully acknowledges funding from the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (project reference JHI-C5-1). CE was supported by the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit core grant (MRC grants MR/S037578/1 and MC_UU_00022/5, and Scotland Chief Scientist Office Grant SPHSU 20) and by the UK Prevention Research Partnership (MR/S037578/1). Funding was also supported by the ESRC Project Centre for Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (ES/S007024/1). |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Elsenbroich, Dr Corinna |
| Authors: | Elsenbroich, C., and Polhill, J. G. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU |
| Journal Name: | International Journal of Social Research Methodology |
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
| ISSN: | 1364-5579 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1464-5300 |
| Published Online: | 22 February 2022 |
University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record
Funder and Project Information
Funder and Project Information