de Glanville, W. A. et al. (2022) Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(10), e0010871. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010871) (PMID:36306281) (PMCID:PMC9665400)
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Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | De Glanville, Dr William and Lankester, Dr Felix and Johnson, Dr Paul and Halliday, Dr Jo and MMBAGA, Professor Blandina Theoph and Willett, Professor Brian and Rostal, Melinda Kathleen and Allan, Dr Kathryn and Cleaveland, Professor Sarah and De Jong, Ms Rosanne and Carter, Mr Ryan and Davis, Dr Alicia and Claxton, Dr John and Thomas, Dr Kate |
| Creator Roles: | De Glanville, W.Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing Halliday, J.Data curation, Investigation, Writing – review and editing Thomas, K.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Allan, K.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Johnson, P.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Davis, A.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Lankester, F.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Claxton, J.Investigation, Project administration, Writing – review and editing Rostal, M. K.Methodology, Writing – review and editing Carter, R.Investigation, Writing – review and editing De Jong, R.Investigation, Writing – review and editing MMBAGA, B. T.Investigation, Project administration, Writing – review and editing Willett, B.Investigation, Writing – review and editing Cleaveland, S.Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Supervision, Writing – review and editing |
| Authors: | de Glanville, W. A., Nyarobi, J. M., Kibona, T., Halliday, J. E.B., Thomas, K. M., Allan, K. J., Johnson, P. C.D., Davis, A., Lankester, F., Claxton, J. R., Rostal, M. K., Carter, R. W., de Jong, R. M.F., Rubach, M. P., Crump, J. A., Mmbaga, B. T., Nyasebwa, O. M., Swai, E. S., Willett, B., and Cleaveland, S. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Infection & Immunity > Centre for Virus Research College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Sociology Anthropology and Applied Social Sciences |
| Journal Name: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Publisher: | Public Library of Science |
| ISSN: | 1935-2727 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1935-2735 |
| Published Online: | 28 October 2022 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2022 de Glanville et al. |
| First Published: | First published in PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16(10): e0010871 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
| Data DOI: | 10.5525/gla.researchdata.1239 |
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