Elsenbroich, C. and Badham, J. (2023) Negotiating a future that is not like the past. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, (doi: 10.1080/13645579.2022.2137935) (Early Online Publication)
![[img]](https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
281501.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. 638kB |
Abstract
Agent-based models combine data and theory during both development and use of the model. As models have become increasingly data driven, it is easy to start thinking of agent-based modelling as an empirical method, akin to statistical modelling, and reduce the role of theory. We argue that both types of information are important where the past is not a reliable blueprint for the future, which occurs when modelling dynamic complex systems or to explore the implications of change. By balancing theory and data, agent-based modelling is a tool to describe plausible futures, that we call ‘justified stories’. We conclude that this balance must be maintained if agent-based models are to serve as a useful decision support tool for policymakers.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Status: | Early Online Publication |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Elsenbroich, Dr Corinna |
| Authors: | Elsenbroich, C., and Badham, J. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU |
| Journal Name: | International Journal of Social Research Methodology |
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
| ISSN: | 1364-5579 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1464-5300 |
| Published Online: | 04 November 2022 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2022 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in International Journal of Social Research Methodology 2022 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record
Funder and Project Information
Funder and Project Information