Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Befani, B., Elsenbroich, C. and Badham, J. (2021) Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities. Evaluation, 27(1), pp. 102-115. (doi: 10.1177/1356389020980476)

Abstract

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This research was part funded by the ESRC Project Centre for Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus ES/S007024/1.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Elsenbroich, Dr Corinna
• Authors: Befani, B., Elsenbroich, C., and Badham, J.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
• Journal Name: Evaluation
• Publisher: SAGE Publications
• ISSN: 1356-3890
• ISSN (Online): 1461-7153
• Published Online: 14 January 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Evaluation 27(1): 102-115
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License