Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: a rapid review

Smith, C. D.L., McMahon, A. D. , Ross, A. , Inman, G. J. and Conway, D. I. (2022) Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: a rapid review. Laryngoscope Investigative Otolaryngology, 7(6), pp. 1893-1908. (doi: 10.1002/lio2.982) (PMID:36544947) (PMCID:PMC9764804)

Abstract

Background: Cancer risk assessment models are used to support prevention and early detection. However, few models have been developed for head and neck cancer (HNC). Methods: A rapid review of Embase and MEDLINE identified n = 3045 articles. Following dual screening, n = 14 studies were included. Quality appraisal using the PROBAST (risk of bias) instrument was conducted, and a narrative synthesis was performed to identify the best performing models in terms of risk factors and designs. Results: Six of the 14 models were assessed as “high” quality. Of these, three had high predictive performance achieving area under curve values over 0.8 (0.87–0.89). The common features of these models were their inclusion of predictors carefully tailored to the target population/anatomical subsite and development with external validation. Conclusions: Some existing models do possess the potential to identify and stratify those at risk of HNC but there is scope for improvement.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Smith, Craig and Inman, Professor Gareth and Ross, Dr Alastair and McMahon, Dr Alex and Conway, Professor David
• Authors: Smith, C. D.L., McMahon, A. D., Ross, A., Inman, G. J., and Conway, D. I.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cancer Sciences; College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing > Dental School
• Journal Name: Laryngoscope Investigative Otolaryngology
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 2378-8038
• ISSN (Online): 2378-8038
• Published Online: 28 November 2022
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Laryngoscope Investigative Otolaryngology 7(6): 1893-1908
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
315941		The TRACC Programme: to Train and Retain Academic Cancer Clinicians / Year 3	Gareth Inman	Cancer Research UK (CRUK)	SEBSTF-2021\100009	Institute of Cancer Sciences