Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis

Gurevitz, J. M., Antman, J. G., Laneri, K. and Morales, J. M. (2021) Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(6), e0009465. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465) (PMID:34115753) (PMCID:PMC8221794)

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Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Morales, Professor Juan
Authors: Gurevitz, J. M., Antman, J. G., Laneri, K., and Morales, J. M.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN (Online):1935-2735
Published Online:11 June 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 Gurevitz et a
First Published:First published in PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15(6): e0009465
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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