Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas

Magnan, A. K. et al. (2022) Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas. Scientific Reports, 12, 10677. (doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w) (PMID:35739282)

[img] Text
273731.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

4MB

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:“Investissements d’avenir” programme supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR; Grant ANR-10-LABX-14-01; AKM); COACCH project supported by the European Union (Grant 776479; JH); INSeaPTION supported by the European Union (EU) & the Dutch Research Council (NWO, Grant 690462; EL, RSWW), the ANR (Grant 690462; VKED), and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; Grant 01LS1703A; JH); ISIPEDIA supported by the EU & BMBF (Grant 01LS1711C; JH); Living Deltas Hub supported by the National Environment Research Council (UKRI GCRF NERC; Grant NE/S008926/1; FGR); and STORISK supported by the ANR (ANR, Grant ANR-15-CE03-0003; AKM, VKED).
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Renaud, Professor Fabrice
Authors: Magnan, A. K., Oppenheimer, M., Garschagen, M., Buchanan, M. K., Duvat, V. K. E., Forbes, D. L., Ford, J. D., Lambert, E., Petzold, J., Renaud, F. G., Sebesvari, Z., van de Wal, R. S. W., Hinkel, J., and Pörtner, H.-O.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
Journal Name:Scientific Reports
Publisher:Nature Research
ISSN:2045-2322
ISSN (Online):2045-2322
Copyright Holders:Copyright © The Author(s) 2022
First Published:First published in Scientific Reports 12(1):10677
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons Licence

University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record