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Flexible versus structured support for reasoning: enhancing analytical reasoning through a flexible analytic technique

Stromer-Galley, J. et al. (2021) Flexible versus structured support for reasoning: enhancing analytical reasoning through a flexible analytic technique. Intelligence and National Security, 36(2), pp. 279-298. (doi: 10.1080/02684527.2020.1841466)

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Abstract

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) help the intelligence community reduce flaws in cognition that lead to faulty reasoning. To ascertain whether SATs provide benefits to reasoning we conducted an experiment within a web-based application, comparing three conditions: 1) unaided reasoning, 2) a prototypical order-based SAT and 3) a flexible, process-based SAT that we call TRACE. Our findings suggest that the more flexible SAT generated higher quality reasoning compared to the other conditions. Consequently, techniques and training that support flexible analytical processes rather than those that require a set sequence of steps may be more beneficial to intelligence analysis and complex reasoning. Keywords: structured analytical techniques, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, tradecraft, cognitive biases, experiments.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Rossini, Dr Patricia
Authors: Stromer-Galley, J., Rossini, P., Kenski, K., McKernan, B., Clegg, B., Folkestad, J., Osterlund, C., Schooler, L., Boichak, O., Canzonetta, J., Martey, R. M., Pavlich, C., Tsetsi, E., and McCracken, N.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
Journal Name:Intelligence and National Security
Publisher:Taylor and Francis
ISSN:0268-4527
ISSN (Online):1743-9019
Published Online:02 November 2020
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor and Francis Group
First Published:First published in Intelligence and National Security 36(2):279-298
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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