SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics

Banks, C. J. et al. (2022) SCoVMod – a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Wellcome Open Research, 7, 161. (doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17716.1)

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Publisher's URL: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17716.1

Abstract

Background: Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value. Methods: Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale. Results: We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes. Conclusions: We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:Version 1; peer review: 2 approved.
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Kao, Professor Rowland and Bessell, Dr Paul and Rossi, Dr Gianluigi and Enright, Dr Jessica and Balaz, Dr Daniel
Creator Roles:
Balaz, D.Validation, Writing – review and editing
Bessell, P. R.Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing
Enright, J.Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – review and editing
Rossi, G.Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing
Kao, R. R.Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing
Authors: Banks, C. J., Colman, E., Doherty, T., Tearne, O., Arnold, M., Atkins, K. E., Balaz, D., Beaunée, G., Bessell, P. R., Enright, J., Kleczkowski, A., Rossi, G., Ruget, A.-S., and Kao, R. R.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Computing Science
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine
Journal Name:Wellcome Open Research
Publisher:F1000Research
ISSN:2398-502X
ISSN (Online):2398-502X
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2022 Banks CJ et al.
First Published:First published in Wellcome Open Research 7: 161
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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Project CodeAward NoProject NamePrincipal InvestigatorFunder's NameFunder RefLead Dept
303567Thinking forward through the past: Linking science, social science and the humanities to inform the sustainable reduction of endemic disease in British livestock farmingNicholas HanleyWellcome Trust (WELLCOTR)209818/A/17/ZInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine