Modelling large-scale evacuation of music festivals

Ronchi, E., Nieto Uriz, F., Criel, X. and Reilly, P. (2016) Modelling large-scale evacuation of music festivals. Case Studies in Fire Safety, 5, pp. 11-19. (doi: 10.1016/j.csfs.2015.12.002)

Abstract

This paper explores the use of multi-agent continuous evacuation modelling for representing large-scale evacuation scenarios at music festivals. A 65,000 people capacity music festival area was simulated using the model Pathfinder. Three evacuation scenarios were developed in order to explore the capabilities of evacuation modelling during such incidents, namely (1) a preventive evacuation of a section of the festival area containing approximately 15,000 people due to a fire breaking out on a ship, (2) an escalating scenario involving the total evacuation of the entire festival area (65,000 people) due to a bomb threat, and (3) a cascading scenario involving the total evacuation of the entire festival area (65,000 people) due to the threat of an explosion caused by a ship engine overheating. This study suggests that the analysis of the people-evacuation time curves produced by evacuation models, coupled with a visual analysis of the simulated evacuation scenarios, allows for the identification of the main factors affecting the evacuation process (e.g., delay times, overcrowding at exits in relation to exit widths, etc.) and potential measures that could improve safety.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work is part of the Seventh Framework Programme EU project CascEff—Modelling of dependencies and cascading effects for emergency management in crisis situations, Grant agreement No: 607665.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Reilly, Dr Paul
• Authors: Ronchi, E., Nieto Uriz, F., Criel, X., and Reilly, P.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: Case Studies in Fire Safety
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 2214-398X
• Published Online: 30 December 2015
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2016 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Case Studies in Fire Safety 5:11-19
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons license