Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals

Zhang, R. , Mamza, J. B., Morris, T., Godfrey, G., Asselbergs, F. W., Denaxas, S., Hemingway, H. and Banerjee, A. (2022) Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals. BMC Medicine, 20, 63. (doi: 10.1186/s12916-022-02234-2) (PMID:35130878) (PMCID:PMC8822817)

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of lifetime risk have neither considered all CVRD together nor the relative contribution of major risk factors to combined disease burden. Methods: In a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473,399 individuals with T2D in England 2007–2018. Lifetime risk of individual and combined major adverse renal cardiovascular events, MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure; chronic kidney disease; myocardial infarction; stroke or peripheral artery disease), were estimated, accounting for baseline CVRD status and competing risk of death. We calculated population attributable risk for individual CVRD components. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, physical activity, diet, and body mass index (i.e. modifiable risk factors). Results: In individuals with T2D, lifetime risk of MARCE was 80% in those free from CVRD and was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% in individuals with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral arterial disease, respectively at baseline. Among CVRD-free individuals, lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease was highest (54%), followed by CV death (41%), heart failure (29%), stroke (20%), myocardial infarction (19%) and peripheral arterial disease (9%). In those with HF only, 75% of MARCE after index T2D can be attributed to HF after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. Compared with those with > 1, < 3 and ≥3 modifiable health risk behaviours, achieving ideal cardiovascular health could reduce MARCE by approximately 41.5%, 23.6% and 17.2%, respectively, in the T2D population. Conclusions: Four out of five individuals with T2D free from CVRD, and nearly all those with history of CVRD, will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Early preventive measures in T2D patients are clinical, public health and policy priorities.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This research was funded by AstraZeneca UK Ltd.
• Keywords: Cardiovascular, kidney, type 2 diabetes, lifetime, population health, attributable risk.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Zhang, Miss Rui Qi
• Authors: Zhang, R., Mamza, J. B., Morris, T., Godfrey, G., Asselbergs, F. W., Denaxas, S., Hemingway, H., and Banerjee, A.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Robertson Centre
• Journal Name: BMC Medicine
• Publisher: BioMed Central
• ISSN: 1741-7015
• ISSN (Online): 1741-7015
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 The Authors
• First Published: First published in BMC Medicine 20: 63
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License