How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves

Schroeder, M. , Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R. and Angelopoulos, K. (2021) How Do Pandemics End? Two Decades of Recurrent Outbreak Risk Following the Main Waves. Working Paper. CESifo, Munich.

Abstract

The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main pandemic waves of two historical pandemics across multiple locations. For the 1890-91 influenza pandemic in England and Wales, as well as the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in the US and eight major UK cities, we find elevated mortality risk that persists for nearly two decades. The generality of the findings suggests that, without modern means of intervention, post-pandemic outbreak risk is likely to persist for an extended period, as we demonstrate in an application to COVID-19.

• Item Type: Research Reports or Papers (Working Paper)
• Additional Information: CESifo Working Paper No. 9475.
• Keywords: Pandemics, outbreak risk, influenza, Covid-19, archive data.
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Schroeder, Mr Max and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Angelopoulos, Dr Konstantinos and Lazarakis, Mr Spyridon
• Authors: Schroeder, M., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., and Angelopoulos, K.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU; College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School; College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
• Publisher: CESifo
• Published Online: 16 December 2021

Related URLs

• Social Science Research Network (SSRN)

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
311208		Assessing policy to address the medium-run impact of COVID-19 on income and health inequality with models informed by the history of disease outbreak	Konstantinos Angelopoulos	UK Research and Innovation ( UKRI) (UKRI)	ES/V005898/1	BS - Economics
304823	1	Places and health	Rich Mitchell	Medical Research Council (MRC)	MC_UU_00022/4	HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
72762	1	Neighbourhoods and Communities	Anne Ellaway	Chief Scientist Office (CSO)	SPHSU10	HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit
304823	1	Places and health	Rich Mitchell	Chief Scientist Office (CSO)	SPHSU19	HW - MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit