Arnold, K. F., Gilthorpe, M. S., Alwan, N. A., Heppenstall, A. J. , Tomova, G. D., McKee, M. and Tennant, P. W.G. (2022) Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: a counterfactual modelling study. PLoS ONE, 17(4), e0263432. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263432) (PMID:35421094) (PMCID:PMC9009677)
Text
263580.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. 1MB |
Abstract
Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown. Methods: Using official reported data on the number of Pillar 1 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths occurring in England from 3 March to 1 June, we modelled: the natural (i.e. observed) growth of cases, and the counterfactual (i.e. hypothetical) growth of cases that would have occurred had measures been implemented one or two weeks earlier. Under each counterfactual condition, we estimated the expected number of deaths and the time required to reach the incidence observed under natural growth on 1 June. Results: Introducing measures one week earlier would have reduced by 74% the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in England by 1 June, resulting in approximately 21,000 fewer hospital deaths and 34,000 fewer total deaths; the required time spent in full lockdown could also have been halved, from 69 to 35 days. Acting two weeks earlier would have reduced cases by 93%, resulting in between 26,000 and 43,000 fewer deaths. Conclusions: Our modelling supports the claim that the relatively late introduction of social distancing and lockdown measures likely increased the scale, severity, and duration of the first wave of COVID-19 in England. Our results highlight the importance of acting swiftly to minimise the spread of an infectious disease when case numbers are increasing exponentially.
Item Type: | Articles |
---|---|
Additional Information: | KFA, MSG, GDT, and PWGT were supported by The Alan Turing Institute [grant number EP/N510129/1, https://www.turing.ac.uk]. |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Heppenstall, Professor Alison and McKee, Mr Martin |
Creator Roles: | |
Authors: | Arnold, K. F., Gilthorpe, M. S., Alwan, N. A., Heppenstall, A. J., Tomova, G. D., McKee, M., and Tennant, P. W.G. |
College/School: | College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU |
Journal Name: | PLoS ONE |
Publisher: | Public Library of Science |
ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
ISSN (Online): | 1932-6203 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2022 Arnold et al. |
First Published: | First published in PLoS ONE 17(4): e0263432 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
University Staff: Request a correction | Enlighten Editors: Update this record