Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: a counterfactual modelling study

Arnold, K. F., Gilthorpe, M. S., Alwan, N. A., Heppenstall, A. J. , Tomova, G. D., McKee, M. and Tennant, P. W.G. (2022) Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: a counterfactual modelling study. PLoS ONE, 17(4), e0263432. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263432) (PMID:35421094) (PMCID:PMC9009677)

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Abstract

Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown. Methods: Using official reported data on the number of Pillar 1 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths occurring in England from 3 March to 1 June, we modelled: the natural (i.e. observed) growth of cases, and the counterfactual (i.e. hypothetical) growth of cases that would have occurred had measures been implemented one or two weeks earlier. Under each counterfactual condition, we estimated the expected number of deaths and the time required to reach the incidence observed under natural growth on 1 June. Results: Introducing measures one week earlier would have reduced by 74% the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in England by 1 June, resulting in approximately 21,000 fewer hospital deaths and 34,000 fewer total deaths; the required time spent in full lockdown could also have been halved, from 69 to 35 days. Acting two weeks earlier would have reduced cases by 93%, resulting in between 26,000 and 43,000 fewer deaths. Conclusions: Our modelling supports the claim that the relatively late introduction of social distancing and lockdown measures likely increased the scale, severity, and duration of the first wave of COVID-19 in England. Our results highlight the importance of acting swiftly to minimise the spread of an infectious disease when case numbers are increasing exponentially.

Item Type:Articles
Additional Information:KFA, MSG, GDT, and PWGT were supported by The Alan Turing Institute [grant number EP/N510129/1, https://www.turing.ac.uk].
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Heppenstall, Professor Alison and McKee, Mr Martin
Creator Roles:
Heppenstall, A. J.Supervision, Writing – review and editing
McKee, M.Writing – review and editing
Authors: Arnold, K. F., Gilthorpe, M. S., Alwan, N. A., Heppenstall, A. J., Tomova, G. D., McKee, M., and Tennant, P. W.G.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences
College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU
Journal Name:PLoS ONE
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
ISSN (Online):1932-6203
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2022 Arnold et al.
First Published:First published in PLoS ONE 17(4): e0263432
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons License

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