Valence secession? Voting shocks and independence support in Scotland

Liñeira, R. (2021) Valence secession? Voting shocks and independence support in Scotland. Politics and Governance, 9(4), pp. 399-411. (doi: 10.17645/pag.v9i4.4571)

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National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.

Item Type:Articles
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Lineira, Dr Robert
Authors: Liñeira, R.
College/School:College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
Journal Name:Politics and Governance
Publisher:Cogitatio Press
Published Online:10 December 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 The Author
First Published:First published in Politics and Governance 9(4): 399-411
Publisher Policy:Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

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