Valence secession? Voting shocks and independence support in Scotland

Liñeira, R. (2021) Valence secession? Voting shocks and independence support in Scotland. Politics and Governance, 9(4), pp. 399-411. (doi: 10.17645/pag.v9i4.4571)

Abstract

National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Lineira, Dr Robert
• Authors: Liñeira, R.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: Politics and Governance
• Publisher: Cogitatio Press
• ISSN: 2183-2463
• Published Online: 10 December 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Author
• First Published: First published in Politics and Governance 9(4): 399-411
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence