Bridging the scale gap: predicting large-scale population dynamics from small-scale variation in strongly heterogeneous landscapes

Cobbold, C. A. , Lutscher, F. and Yurk, B. (2022) Bridging the scale gap: predicting large-scale population dynamics from small-scale variation in strongly heterogeneous landscapes. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 13(4), pp. 866-879. (doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.13799)

Abstract

1. Often, ecologists are challenged with a mismatch of scales: how do we upscale from local variation and available data to landscape-level models and predictions? 2. We present a general recipe for coarse-graining from local- to landscape-scale reaction–diffusion equations when spatial heterogeneity is small in extent compared to dispersal of organisms. Our homogenization approach uses the fundamental ecological concepts of Turchin's residence index and Skellam's dynamic level. 3. Our approach opens avenues to new ecological theory that connects different scales, which we illustrate using predator–prey interactions. It also presents opportunities for using the increasingly available small-scale data for landscapelevel predictions, such as range expansion rates. 4. We find several unexpected nonlinear relationships between the movement behaviour on the local level and the spatially implicit and explicit outcomes at the landscape level, for example, predator spread rate may increase or decrease when predators move faster locally. Our method provides a mechanistic link for population dynamics and data integration across spatial and temporal scales, addressing a fundamental goal of landscape ecology

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: Funding information: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant/ Award Number: RGPAS-2016-492872 and RGPIN-2016-04795; Leverhulme Research Fellowship, Grant/Award Number: RF-2018-577\9
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Cobbold, Professor Christina
• Authors: Cobbold, C. A., Lutscher, F., and Yurk, B.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Mathematics and Statistics > Mathematics
• Journal Name: Methods in Ecology and Evolution
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 2041-210X
• ISSN (Online): 2041-210X
• Published Online: 26 December 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2022 British Ecological Society
• First Published: First published in Methods in Ecology and Evolution 13(4): 86-879
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
302369		Insect abundance and climate variability: Novel insights from homogenisation	Christina Cobbold	Leverhulme Trust (LEVERHUL)	RF-2018-577\9	M&S - Mathematics