The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008-2020)

Li, Z. and Fotheringham, A. S. (2022) The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008-2020). Transactions in GIS, 26(3), pp. 1609-1628. (doi: 10.1111/tgis.12880)

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Abstract

Political and social processes that shape people's voting preferences might be linked to geographical location, varying from place to place, and operating at local, regional, and national scales. Here, we use a local modeling technique, multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), to examine spatial and temporal variations in the influences of county-level socio-economic factors on voter preference during the 2008–2020 U.S. presidential elections. We argue that the local intercept in the MGWR model is an indicator of the effect of spatial context on voter preference and not only can this be separated from the effect of other socio-economic factors, but it needs to be in order to prevent misspecification bias in the indicators of these other factors. We also identify strong and consistent divisions across the country in how context shapes election results.

Item Type:Articles
Status:Published
Refereed:Yes
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:Li, Dr Ziqi
Authors: Li, Z., and Fotheringham, A. S.
College/School:College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
Journal Name:Transactions in GIS
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:1361-1682
ISSN (Online):1467-9671
Published Online:08 December 2021
Copyright Holders:Copyright © 2021 John Wiley and Sons Ltd
First Published:First published in Transactions in GIS 26(3): 1609-1628
Publisher Policy:Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy

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