The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008-2020)

Li, Z. and Fotheringham, A. S. (2022) The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008-2020). Transactions in GIS, 26(3), pp. 1609-1628. (doi: 10.1111/tgis.12880)

Abstract

Political and social processes that shape people's voting preferences might be linked to geographical location, varying from place to place, and operating at local, regional, and national scales. Here, we use a local modeling technique, multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), to examine spatial and temporal variations in the influences of county-level socio-economic factors on voter preference during the 2008–2020 U.S. presidential elections. We argue that the local intercept in the MGWR model is an indicator of the effect of spatial context on voter preference and not only can this be separated from the effect of other socio-economic factors, but it needs to be in order to prevent misspecification bias in the indicators of these other factors. We also identify strong and consistent divisions across the country in how context shapes election results.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Li, Dr Ziqi
• Authors: Li, Z., and Fotheringham, A. S.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
• Journal Name: Transactions in GIS
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 1361-1682
• ISSN (Online): 1467-9671
• Published Online: 08 December 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 John Wiley and Sons Ltd
• First Published: First published in Transactions in GIS 26(3): 1609-1628
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy