A Bayesian Inference Framework for Gamma-ray Burst Afterglow Properties

Lin, E.-T., Hayes, F. , Lamb, G. P., Heng, I. S. , Kong, A. K. H., Williams, M. J. , Saha, S. and Veitch, J. (2021) A Bayesian Inference Framework for Gamma-ray Burst Afterglow Properties. Universe, 7(9), 349. (doi: 10.3390/universe7090349)

Abstract

In the field of multi-messenger astronomy, Bayesian inference is commonly adopted to compare the compatibility of models given the observed data. However, to describe a physical system like neutron star mergers and their associated gamma-ray burst (GRB) events, usually more than ten physical parameters are incorporated in the model. With such a complex model, likelihood evaluation for each Monte Carlo sampling point becomes a massive task and requires a significant amount of computational power. In this work, we perform quick parameter estimation on simulated GRB X-ray light curves using an interpolated physical GRB model. This is achieved by generating a grid of GRB afterglow light curves across the parameter space and replacing the likelihood with a simple interpolation function in the high-dimensional grid that stores all light curves. This framework, compared to the original method, leads to a ∼90× speedup per likelihood estimation. It will allow us to explore different jet models and enable fast model comparison in the future.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This work is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan through grant 109-2628-M-007-005-RSP.
• Keywords: Bayesian inference, multi-messenger astronomy, GRB afterglows.
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Heng, Professor Ik Siong and SAHA, SUROJIT and Williams, Michael and Hayes, Dr Fergus and Veitch, Dr John

Creator Roles

Hayes, F.: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – original draft
Heng, I. S.: Conceptualization
Williams, M. J.: Resources
Saha, S.: Writing – review and editing
Veitch, J.: Supervision

• Authors: Lin, E.-T., Hayes, F., Lamb, G. P., Heng, I. S., Kong, A. K. H., Williams, M. J., Saha, S., and Veitch, J.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Physics and Astronomy
• Research Centre: College of Science and Engineering > School of Physics and Astronomy > Institute for Gravitational Research
• Journal Name: Universe
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 2218-1997
• ISSN (Online): 2218-1997
• Published Online: 17 September 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Universe 7(9): 349
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License