Large-scale flood risk assessment under different development strategies: the Luanhe River Basin in China

Zhao, J., Chen, H., Liang, Q., Xia, X., Xu, J. , Hoey, T. , Barrett, B. , Renaud, F. G. , Bosher, L. and Zhou, X. (2022) Large-scale flood risk assessment under different development strategies: the Luanhe River Basin in China. Sustainability Science, 17(4), pp. 1365-1384. (doi: 10.1007/s11625-021-01034-6)

Abstract

Increasing resilience to natural hazards and climate change is critical for achieving many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In recent decades, China has experienced rapid economic development and became the second-largest economy in the world. This rapid economic expansion has led to large-scale changes in terrestrial (e.g., land use and land cover changes), aquatic (e.g., construction of reservoirs and artificial wetlands) and marine (e.g., land reclamation) environments across the country. Together with climate change, these changes may significantly influence flood risk and, in turn, compromise SDG achievements. The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) is one of the most afforested basins in North China and has undergone significant urbanisation and land use change since the 1950s. However, basin-wide flood risk assessment under different development scenarios has not been considered, although this is critically important to inform policy-making to manage the synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs and support long-term sustainable development. Using mainly open data, this paper introduces a new framework for systematically assessing flood risk under different social and economic development scenarios. A series of model simulations are performed to investigate the flood risk under different land use change scenarios projected to 2030 to reflect different development strategies. The results are systematically analysed and compared with the baseline simulation based on the current land use and climate conditions. Further investigations are also provided to consider the impact of climate change and the construction of dams and reservoirs. The results potentially provide important guidance to inform future development strategies to maximise the synergies and minimise the trade-offs between various SDGs in LRB.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: This research is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) of the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through the Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) programme (NE/S012427/1)
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Renaud, Professor Fabrice and Barrett, Dr Brian and Hoey, Professor Trevor and Xu, Dr Jiren
• Authors: Zhao, J., Chen, H., Liang, Q., Xia, X., Xu, J., Hoey, T., Barrett, B., Renaud, F. G., Bosher, L., and Zhou, X.
• College/School: College of Science and Engineering > School of Geographical and Earth Sciences; College of Social Sciences > School of Social & Environmental Sustainability
• Journal Name: Sustainability Science
• Publisher: Springer
• ISSN: 1862-4065
• ISSN (Online): 1862-4057
• Published Online: 11 October 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Sustainability Science 17(4): 1365-1384
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons licence

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
304813		River basins as 'living laboratories' for achieving sustainable development goals across national and sub-national scales	Fabrice Renaud	Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)	NE/S012427/1	IS - Interdisciplinary Studies