Decision-making in emergency laparotomy: the role of predicted life expectancy

Choong, J.X., McIlveen, E., Quasim, T. and Moug, S.J. (2021) Decision-making in emergency laparotomy: the role of predicted life expectancy. BJS Open, 5(5), zrab090. (doi: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrab090) (PMID:34633437) (PMCID:PMC8504444)

Abstract

Introduction: Increasing numbers of older patients are undergoing emergency laparotomy (EL). They are at increased risk of adverse outcomes, making the shared decision on whether to operate challenging. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the role of age and life-expectancy predictions on short- and long-term survival in patients undergoing EL. Methods: All patients who underwent EL at one hospital in the West of Scotland between March 2014 to December 2016 were included. Clinical parameters were collected, and patients were followed up to allow reporting of 30-, 60- and 90-day and 1-year mortality rates. Period life expectancy was used to stratify patients into below life expectancy (bLEP) and at-or-above life expectancy (aLEP) groups at presentation. Remaining life expectancy was used to calculate the net years of life gained (NYLG). Results: Some 462 patients underwent EL: 20 per cent in the aLEP group. These patients were older (P < 0.001), had more co-morbidities (P < 0.001) and were high risk on P-POSSUM scoring (P = 0.008). The 30-, 60- and 90-day and 1-year mortality rates were 11, 14, 16 and 23 per cent respectively. Advanced age (P = 0.011) and high ASA score (P = 0.004) and P-POSSUM score (P < 0.001) were independent predictors of death at 1 year on multivariable analysis. The cohort NYLG were 19.2 years. Comparing patients aged less than 70 with those aged 70 years or older, the NYLG were 25.9 versus 5.5 years. Comparing bLEP and aLEP, the NYLG were 22.2 versus 4.4 years. In patients aged 70 years and older, NYLG decreased by more than half in patients with co-morbidities (ASA score 3,4,5) (9.3 versus 4.3 years). Conclusion: Discussions around long-term outcomes after emergency surgery remain difficult. Although age is an influencing factor, predicted life expectancy alone does not provide additional value to shared decision making.

• Item Type: Articles
• Additional Information: The authors would like to thank the James Paterson Trust Intercalated Awards for providing financial support for this intercalated BSc (Med Sci) 2018–2019 (J.X.C.).
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Moug, Ms Susan and Quasim, Professor Tara and McIlveen, Miss Erin
• Authors: Choong, J.X., McIlveen, E., Quasim, T., and Moug, S.J.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
• Journal Name: BJS Open
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 2474-9842
• ISSN (Online): 2474-9842
• Published Online: 11 October 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in BJS Open 5(5): zrab090
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License