The impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s electoral demise: the role of economic and democratic accountability

Neundorf, A. and Pardos-Prado, S. (2022) The impact of Covid-19 on Trump’s electoral demise: the role of economic and democratic accountability. Perspectives on Politics, 20(1), pp. 170-186. (doi: 10.1017/S1537592721001961)

Abstract

Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Neundorf, Professor Anja and Pardos-Prado, Professor Sergi
• Authors: Neundorf, A., and Pardos-Prado, S.
• College/School: College of Social Sciences > School of Social and Political Sciences > Politics
• Journal Name: Perspectives on Politics
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• ISSN: 1537-5927
• ISSN (Online): 1541-0986
• Published Online: 20 August 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Perspectives on Politics 20(1): 170-186
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced in accordance with the publisher copyright policy