Care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 in Scotland March to May 2020: national linked data cohort analysis

Burton, J. K. , McMinn, M. , Vaughan, J. E., Fleuriot, J. and Guthrie, B. (2021) Care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 in Scotland March to May 2020: national linked data cohort analysis. Age and Ageing, 50(5), pp. 1482-1492. (doi: 10.1093/ageing/afab099) (PMID:33963849) (PMCID:PMC8136021)

Abstract

Background understanding care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 is a key public health priority in the ongoing pandemic to help protect vulnerable residents. Objective to describe all outbreaks of COVID-19 infection in Scottish care-homes for older people between 01/03/2020 to 31/03/2020, with follow-up to 30/06/2020. Design and setting national linked data cohort analysis of Scottish care-homes for older people. Methods data linkage was used to identify outbreaks of COVID-19 in care-homes. Care-home characteristics associated with the presence of an outbreak were examined using logistic regression. Size of outbreaks was modelled using negative binomial regression. Results 334 (41%) Scottish care-homes for older people experienced an outbreak, with heterogeneity in outbreak size (1–63 cases; median = 6) and duration (1–94 days; median = 31.5 days). Four distinct patterns of outbreak were identified: ‘Typical’ (38% of outbreaks, mean 11.2 cases and 48 days duration), Severe (11%, mean 29.7 cases and 60 days), Contained (37%, mean 3.5 cases and 13 days), and Late-onset (14%, mean 5.4 cases and 17 days). Risk of a COVID-19 outbreak increased with increasing care-home size (for ≥90 beds vs <20, adjusted OR = 55.4, 95%CI 15.0–251.7) and rising community prevalence (OR = 1.2 [1.0–1.4] per 100 cases/100,000 population increase). No routinely available care-home characteristic was associated with outbreak size. Conclusions reducing community prevalence of COVID-19 infection is essential to protect those living in care-homes. More systematic national data collection to understand care-home residents and the homes in which they live is a priority in ensuring we can respond more effectively in future.

• Item Type: Articles
• Status: Published
• Refereed: Yes
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Burton, Dr Jenni and McMinn, Dr Megan
• Authors: Burton, J. K., McMinn, M., Vaughan, J. E., Fleuriot, J., and Guthrie, B.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health
• Journal Name: Age and Ageing
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• ISSN: 0002-0729
• ISSN (Online): 1468-2834
• Published Online: 08 May 2021
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2021 The Authors
• First Published: First published in Age and Ageing 50(5): 1482-1492
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced under a Creative Commons License