Time series analysis and prediction of intracranial pressure using time-varying dynamic linear models

Shaw, M., Hawthorne, C., Moss, L. , Kommer, M., O'Kane, R. and Piper, I. (2021) Time series analysis and prediction of intracranial pressure using time-varying dynamic linear models. In: Depreitere, B., Meyfroidt, G. and Güiza, F. (eds.) Intracranial Pressure and Neuromonitoring XVII. Series: Acta neurochirurgica supplement (131). Springer: Cham, pp. 225-229. ISBN 9783030594350 (doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-59436-7_43)

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Intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring is a key clinical tool in the assessment and treatment of patients in a neuro-intensive care unit (neuro-ICU). As such, a deeper understanding of how an individual patient's ICP can be influenced by therapeutic interventions could improve clinical decision-making. A pilot application of a time-varying dynamic linear model was conducted using the BrainIT dataset, a multi-centre European dataset containing temporaneous treatment and vital-sign recordings. The study included 106 patients with a minimum of 27 h of ICP monitoring. The model was trained on the first 24 h of each patient's ICU stay, and then the next 2 h of ICP was forecast. The algorithm enabled switching between three interventional states: analgesia, osmotic therapy and paralysis, with the inclusion of arterial blood pressure, age and gender as exogenous regressors. The overall median absolute error was 2.98 (2.41-5.24) mmHg calculated using all 106 2-h forecasts. This is a novel technique which shows some promise for forecasting ICP with an adequate accuracy of approximately 3 mmHg. Further optimisation is required for the algorithm to become a usable clinical tool.

Item Type:Book Sections
Additional Information:Part of the Acta Neurochirurgica Supplement book series (NEUROCHIRURGICA, volume 131).
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID:O'Kane, Mr Roddy and Kommer, Maya and Piper, Dr Ian and Moss, Dr Laura and Hawthorne, Dr Christopher and Shaw, Dr Martin
Authors: Shaw, M., Hawthorne, C., Moss, L., Kommer, M., O'Kane, R., and Piper, I.
College/School:College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing
Published Online:11 April 2021
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