Burton, J. K. et al. (2021) Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland. Age and Ageing, 50(4), pp. 1029-1037. (doi: 10.1093/ageing/afab080) (PMID:33914870) (PMCID:PMC8135527)
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Abstract
Background: COVID-19 deaths are commoner among care-home residents, but the mortality burden has not been quantified. Methods: Care-home residency was identified via a national primary care registration database linked to mortality data. Life expectancy was estimated using Makeham-Gompertz models, to (i) describe yearly life expectancy from November 2015 to October 2020 (ii) compare life expectancy (during 2016–2018) between care-home residents and the wider population and (iii) apply care-home life expectancy estimates to COVID-19 death counts to estimate years of life lost (YLL). Results: Among care-home residents, life expectancy in 2015/16 to 2019/20 ranged from 2.7 to 2.3 years for women and 2.3 to 1.8 years for men. Age-sex specific life expectancy in 2016–2018 in care-home residents was lower than in the Scottish population (10 and 2.5 years in those aged 70 and 90 respectively). Applying care-home specific life expectancies to COVID-19 deaths yields, mean YLLs for care-home residents of 2.6 and 2.2 for women and men respectively. In total YLL care-home residents have lost 3,560 years in women and 2,046 years in men. Approximately half of deaths and a quarter of YLL attributed to COVID-19 were accounted for by the 5% of over-70s who were care-home residents. Conclusion: COVID-19 infection has led to the loss of substantial years of life in care-home residents aged 70 years and over in Scotland. Prioritising the 5% of older adults who are care-home residents for vaccination is justified not only in terms of total deaths, but also in terms of years of life lost.
Item Type: | Articles |
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Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Burton, Dr Jenni and McAllister, Professor David and Quinn, Professor Terry and Hanlon, Dr Peter |
Authors: | Burton, J. K., Reid, M., Gribben, C., Caldwell, D., Clark, D.N., Hanlon, P., Quinn, T. J., Fischbacher, C., Knight, P., Guthrie, B., and McAllister, D. |
College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > General Practice and Primary Care College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > Public Health |
Journal Name: | Age and Ageing |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
ISSN: | 0002-0729 |
ISSN (Online): | 1468-2834 |
Published Online: | 29 April 2021 |
Copyright Holders: | Copyright © The Author(s) 2021 |
First Published: | First published in Age and Ageing 50(4): 1029-1037 |
Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons Licence |
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