Colman, E., Hanley, N. and Kao, R. R. (2020) Spontaneous divergence of disease status in an economic epidemiological game. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476(2242), 20190837. (doi: 10.1098/rspa.2019.0837) (PMID:33214756) (PMCID:PMC7655765)
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Abstract
We introduce a game inspired by the challenges of disease management in livestock farming and the transmission of endemic disease through a trade network. Success in this game comes from balancing the cost of buying new stock with the risk that it will be carrying some disease. When players follow a simple memory-based strategy we observe a spontaneous separation into two groups corresponding to players with relatively high, or low, levels of infection. By modelling the dynamics of both the disease and the formation and breaking of trade relationships, we derive the conditions for which this separation occurs as a function of the transmission rate and the threshold level of acceptable disease for each player. When interactions in the game are restricted to players that neighbour each other in a small-world network, players tend to have similar levels of infection as their neighbours. We conclude that success in economic-epidemiological systems can originate from misfortune and geographical circumstances as well as by innate differences in personal attitudes towards risk.
| Item Type: | Articles |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Coevolving networks, dynamics of networks, dynamics on networks, games, livestock trade. |
| Status: | Published |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: | Hanley, Professor Nicholas and Kao, Professor Rowland |
| Authors: | Colman, E., Hanley, N., and Kao, R. R. |
| College/School: | College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine |
| Journal Name: | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
| Publisher: | The Royal Society |
| ISSN: | 1364-5021 |
| ISSN (Online): | 1471-2946 |
| Published Online: | 07 October 2020 |
| Copyright Holders: | Copyright © 2020 The Authors |
| First Published: | First published in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 476(2242): 20190837 |
| Publisher Policy: | Reproduced under a Creative Commons License |
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