Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence

Angelopoulos, K. , Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R. and Schroeder, M. (2020) Briefing Note: Post-pandemic mortality dynamics: historical city-level evidence. Other. University of Glasgow and Lancaster University.

Abstract

COVID-19 has been the worst pandemic since the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918-19, to which it has often been compared at the national and global level. We analysed a long time series of deaths from infectious and non-communicable diseases using detailed archival records for the City of Glasgow to construct a rich dataset of causes of mortality from 1898 to 1972. The archival records confirm that, for Glasgow, the 1918-19 influenza pandemic was the most significant outbreak since the start of the 20th century, that led to an increase in all-cause mortality that, until June 2020, exceeded that of COVID-19. They also demonstrate that the 1918-19 pandemic was followed by a period of heightened volatility in death rates from influenza and related diseases, reflecting more frequent outbreaks, before settling into a regime of smaller fluctuations post-1940. Hence, experience from 1918-19 suggests the potential for a fairly extended period of frequent outbreaks following a pandemic, at least at local scale.

• Item Type: Research Reports or Papers (Other)
• Status: Published
• Glasgow Author(s) Enlighten ID: Schroeder, Mr Max and Mancy, Dr Rebecca and Lazarakis, Mr Spyridon and Angelopoulos, Dr Konstantinos
• Authors: Angelopoulos, K., Lazarakis, S., Mancy, R., and Schroeder, M.
• College/School: College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Health & Wellbeing > MRC/CSO SPHSU; College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School; College of Social Sciences > Adam Smith Business School > Economics
• Publisher: University of Glasgow and Lancaster University
• Copyright Holders: Copyright © 2020 The Authors
• Publisher Policy: Reproduced with the permission of the author

Project Code	Award No	Project Name	Principal Investigator	Funder's Name	Funder Ref	Lead Dept
311208		Assessing policy to address the medium-run impact of COVID-19 on income and health inequality with models informed by the history of disease outbreak	Konstantinos Angelopoulos	UK Research and Innovation ( UKRI) (UKRI)	ES/V005898/1	BS - Economics
72762	1	SPHSU Core Renewal: Neighbourhoods and Communities Research Programme	Anne Ellaway	Medical Research Council (MRC)	MC_UU_12017/10	IHW - MRC/CSO SPHU
				Chief Scientist Office (CSO)	SPHSU10